The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the processes that explain human behaviour within different contexts. Here we are concerned in modelling the human response to a deadline, and in particular we look at the process of conference registration with an early bird deadline. We provide empirical evidence from a six-year conference registration data set that the bi-logistic growth function, with the interpretation as registration with an early bird deadline, can be viewed as a social mechanism.
In this paper we present two simple mathematical models to describe human behavior in reaction to deadlines. When a real commitment (e.g. money) is involved, as in the case of a payment deadline, the expected reaction is to postpone it as close as possible to the deadline to minimize the risk of loosing the value. For low risk commitments this tendency is still present but expected to be looser. In order to test these predictions in a quantitative way, we performed data analysis for the total number of registrations and fee payments vs. time for the recent scientific conference “Statphys 23”, comparing it with the data of another conference in order to recover universal features. Two related models respectively for registrations (weak engagement) and fee payment (strong engagement) are then introduced which are able to explain in a simple way both behaviors, and which show an excellent agreement with real data.
Spatio-temporal correlations of traffic intensity are analyzed employing data collected for the motorway M-30 around Madrid during one week in January 2009. We found that the lifetime of these correlations is the shortest in the evening between 6:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. This lifetime represents a new indicator for the amount of attention that is demanded by drivers in given traffic conditions.