Local Real Estate Markets in Poland as a Network of Damped Harmonic Oscillators

• Authors: S. Kulesza , M. Belej
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

The paper deals with time series of housing prices on local real estate markets in Warszawa (WAW), Kraków (KRK) and Poznań (POZ) from 2006 to 2013 using a model of critically-damped harmonic oscillator to study underlying system dynamics. Performed analysis reveals the presence of housing bubble in 2007 that emerge from otherwise quasi-regular evolution around the equilibrium state. Time series of housing prices are fitted numerically to estimate important parameters of the system, for example: decay constant, delay time, and price equilibrium level, which help us to chose the leading market. Obtained results show reasonable matching of the model with housing prices in WAW and POZ, but less in KRK. The latter data, however, are found to agree well with the model of under-damped harmonic oscillator, which actually suggests that some trembling might occur in that market. Nevertheless, local real estate markets can be thought of as a system of interconnected damped harmonic oscillators with leading market in WAW that is about to change under aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations (exogenous factors) triggering changes in remaining markets.

Keywords

EN

05.70.Ln; 89.65.Gh; 89.75.Da

Discipline

• 89.65.Gh: Economics; econophysics, financial markets, business and management(for economic issues regarding production and use of renewable energy, see 88.05.Lg)
• 89.75.Da: Systems obeying scaling laws
• 05.70.Ln: Nonequilibrium and irreversible thermodynamics(see also 82.40.Bj Oscillations, chaos, and bifurcations in physical chemistry and chemical physics)

• Publisher: Institute of Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences
• Journal: Acta Physica Polonica A
• Year: 2015
• Volume: 127
• Issue: 3A
• Pages: A-99-A-102

Dates

published

2015-03

Contributors

author

S. Kulesza

• Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, Warmia and Mazury University in Olsztyn, Słoneczna 54, 10-710 Olsztyn

author

M. Belej

• Faculty of Geodesy and Land Management, Warmia and Mazury University in Olsztyn, Prawocheńskiego 15, 10-720 Olsztyn

References

• [1] H. Selim, Expert Systems with Applications 36, 2843 (2009), doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2008.01.044
• [2] D. Venclauskiene, V. Snieska, Economics and Management 14, 1026 (2009)
• [3] R. Wisniewski, Wielowymiarowe prognozowanie wartosci nieruchomosci, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Warminsko-Mazurskiego, Olsztyn 2007
• [4] I. Forys, Spoleczno-gospodarcze determinanty rozwoju rynku mieszkaniowego w Polsce. Ujecie ilosciowe, Wydawnictwo Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecinskiego, Szczecin 2010
• [5] I. Forys, B. Batog, Wiadomosci Statystyczne 5, 36 (2013)
• [6] R.N. Mantegna, H.E. Stanley, Ekonofizyka. Wprowadzenie, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa 2001
• [7] M. Belej, S. Kulesza, Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia 11, 61 (2013)
• [8] M. Belej, S. Kulesza, Acta Phys. Pol. A 123, 497 (2013), doi: 10.12693/APhysPolA.123.467
• [9] L. Sandoval jr, I. de Paula Franca, arXiv: 1103.1992, 2011

Identifiers

DOI

10.12693/APhysPolA.127.A-99