Financial risk contagion to real sector in Iran: A VAR-BEKK-GARCH approach
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Asset market interconnectedness can give rise to significant contagion risks during periods of financial crises that extend beyond the risks associated with changes in volatilities and correlations. These channels include the transmission of shocks operating through changes in the higher order co-movements of asset returns, including changes in co-skewness arising from changes in the interaction between volatility and average returns across asset markets. These additional contagion channels have nontrivial implications for the pricing of options through changes in the payoff probability structure and more generally, in the management of financial risks. The purpose of this study was to investigate the financial risk contagion from the financial sector to the real sector of the economy using VAR-BEKK-GARCH for the active industries in the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period of 1388-1395. The estimated coefficients for considering the period of the crisis and the recession in the stock market indicate that the coefficients are positive for the effect of the outflow in the stock market. Also, in the case study, there is a probability of financial risk fluctuation between the investigated industries. In addition, the results indicate that the risk and turmoil among the active industries in the stock market and the real sector of the Iranian economy are tangible.
- Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran
- Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran
- Faculty of Management, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran
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