The prediction of the displacements of the body of the Solina Dam as a tool to improve safety of the facility
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Social and economic development of the country to a large extent is determined by the energy sector. Structure of electricity production in Poland shows a significant share of fossil fuels. According to the Energy Market Information Centre coal is particularly important to ensure sufficient energy supply in Poland. Its participation in the national production comprises nearly 50%. Another important energy source is lignite, which accounts for more than 34% of electricity production. Unfortunately, the energy system based mainly on limited fuel resources requires the search for new energy sources. This situation makes the use of water energy an interesting solution. Low hydropower potential in Poland, as well as economic and formal – legal aspects causes that mentioned potential is used only in 12%, which is 1,5% of national electricity production. Both the low utilization of energy water potential of the country, as well as the benefits from the development of hydropower indicate the need to take actions aimed at hydropower development, one of them are focused on modernization and renovation of existing facilities. Because of the lowland character of the country, the pumped – storage power plants are the most important in electricity production. To ensure their stable share in national energy sector it is important to control current state of both power plants and its associated facilities, such as dam. To this aim, there were created many statistical methods focused on displacements of the dam during the normal operation of the object. Previous analysis allowed for the conclusion, that the EDF model reflects measurement data obtained from the body of the dam, the most faithfully. This assumption allowed for forecasting of future displacements of mentioned measurement points. The main assumption of presented modeling was to create simple tool to support the monitoring of the object and ensure its safety operation.
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