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2019 | 130 | 265-285
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Population Variability and Heat Bias Prediction of Africa from 2019 to 2049: An Approach to Sustainable Continental Heat Management

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This research assesses population variability and heat bias prediction of Africa from 2019 to 2049. Heat bias data were generated from Elaboration of data by United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division and projected up to 2049 using the population mathematical model. With different population growth rates of African countries, the Continent recorded annual heat bias of 6.7 ºC in 2019, 6.7 ºC in 2029 and 6.8 ºC in 2039 as well as 6.9 ºC in 2049 with decadal growth rate of 0.1 ºC indicating that it has exceeded the 0.5-0.25 ºC standard comfort threshold. In Africa, the countries with highest heat bias are Nigeria (6.1 ºC), Ethiopia (5.9 ºC), Egypt (5.8 ºC) and Democratic Republic of Congo (5.8 ºC). Country with highest population density was Mayotte at 510 P/Km2 and 4.0 ºC heat bias, Mauritius was the second country with high population density of 626 P/Km2 and 4.5 ºC heat bias. Rwanda ranked third with population density of 519P/Km2 and 5.2 ºC heat bias; Comoros and Burundi had population density of 457 P/Km2 and 451 P/Km2 as well as heat bias of 4.3 ºC and 5.2 ºC respectively. Countries with very low population density were Western Sahara (2P/Km2 and 4.2 ºC heat bias), Namibia (3 P/Km2 and 4.7 ºC heat bias), Libya (5.0 ºC) and Botswana (4.7 ºC) both having population density of 4 P/Km2. Results show that heat bias in Africa does not differ across the decades. Also, the climatic characteristics operating on the land of Africa influence heat bias of the continent. Heat wave could result to death of people in Africa; therefor planners in Africa should implement environmental, health and land-use management strategies with immediate action in order to make Africa a heat bias free place to live.
Physical description
  • Department of Geography and Environmental Management, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria
  • Department of Geography and Environmental Management, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria
  • Department of Geography and Environmental Management, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria
  • Department of Geography and Environmental Management, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria
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