Trend analysis of rainfall in Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh, India
Languages of publication
attention recently, especially in connection with climate change. The changing pattern of rainfall deserves urgent and systematic attention for planning, development, utilisation and management of water resources. The daily data on variable were converted to monthly and then computed to seasonal and annual series. Annual rainfall (mm/yr) was calculated as the sum of monthly values. The missing values in the data were computed by using average method. The records of rainfall were subjected to trend analysis by using both non-parametric (Mann-Kendall test) and parametric (linear regression analysis) procedures. For better understanding of the observed trends, data were computed into standardised precipitation indices (SPI). These standardised data series were plotted against time and the linear trends observed were represented graphically. Trend analysis results of rainfall show that out of 15 annual trends 6 (40%) are increasing and 9 (60%) are decreasing in nature where 1 (6.6%) is statistically significant (increasing) and 2 (13.3%) are statistically significant (decreasing) at 95% confidence level. Similarly, the changes were investigated for the four seasons: winter (December-March), pre-monsoon (April-June), monsoon (July-September) and post-monsoon (October-November). The analysis of rainfall, annual as well as seasonal, of different gauge stations in Satluj River Basin showed a large variability in the trends and magnitudes from 1984 to 2010. The rainfall shows great temporal and spatial variations, unequal seasonal distribution with frequent departures from normal. Majority of gauge stations have experienced decreasing trends, both on seasonal and annual scales. Some were statistically significant at 95% confidence level. The sensitivity of rainfall variations provides important insight regarding the responses and vulnerability of different areas to climate change. It will further strengthen the formulation of future strategy for management of water resources.
- Department of Environment Studies, Panjab University, Chandigarh - 160014, India, email@example.com
- Department of Geology (CAS), Panjab University, Chandigarh, India, Gill.firstname.lastname@example.org
- Department of Environmental Sciences, MDU, Rohtak (Haryana), India, email@example.com
-  Archer DR and Fowler HJ (2004) Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 8: 47-61.
-  Bartarya SK, Virdi NS and Sah MP (1996) Landslide hazards: Some case studies from the Satluj Valley, Himachal Pradesh: Himalayan Geology, 17: 193-207.
-  Bayazit M and Önöz B (2007) To pre-whiten or not to pre-whiten in trend analysis? Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52 (4): 611-624.
-  Beniston M, Diaz FD and Bradley RS (1997) Climate change at high elevation sites: An overview, Climate Change, 36: 233-251.
-  Bhutiyani MR, Kale VS and Pawar NJ (2008) Changing streamflow patterns in the rivers of northwestern Himalaya: Implications of global warming in the 20th century, Current Science, 95 (5): 618-626.
-  Buffoni L, Maugeri M and Nanni T (1999) Precipitation in Italy from 1833 to 1996, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 63: 33-40.
-  Burn DH (1994) Hydrologic effects of climatic change in West-Central Canada, Journal of Hydrology, 160: 53-70.
-  Burn DH and Hag Elnur MA (2002) Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Journal of Hydrology, 255: 107-122.
-  Burn DH, Cunderlik JM and Pietroniro A (2004) Hydrological trends and variability in the Liard river basin, Hydrological Science Journal, 49: 53-67.
-  Caloiero T, Coscarelli R, Ferrari E and Marco Mancini (2011) Trend detection of annual and seasonal rainfall in Calabria (Southern Italy), International Journal of Climatology, 31: 44-56.
-  Cox DR and Stuart A (1955) Some quick sign tests for trend in location and dispersion, Biometrika, 42: 80-95.
-  Dietz EJ and Killeen TJ (1981) A nonparametric multivariate test for monotone trend with pharmaceutical applications, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76: 169-174.
-  Dore MHI (2005) Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: What do we know? Environmental International, 31: 1167-1181.
-  Douglas EM, Vogel RM and Knoll CN (2000) Trends in flood and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation, Journal of Hydrology, 240: 90-105.
-  Gilbert RO (1987) Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring, Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York.
-  Gupta V, Sah MP, Virdi NS and Bartarya SK (1994) Landslide hazard zonation in the Upper Satluj Valley, District. Kinnaur, Himachal Pradesh, Journal of Himalayan Geology, 4(1): 81-93.
-  Hamilton JP, Whitelaw GS and Fenech A (2001) Mean annual temperature and annual precipitation trends at Canadian biosphere reserves, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 67: 239-275.
-  Helsel DR and Hirsch RM (1992) Statistical Methods in Water Resources, Elsevier, New York.
-  Hirsch RM and Slack JR (1984) Non-parametric trend test for seasonal data with serial dependence, Water Resources Research, 20(6): 727-732.
-  Hirsch RM, Slack JR and Smith RA (1982) Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data, Water Resources Research, 18: 107-121.
-  Kampata JM, Parida BP and Moalafhi DB (2008) Trend analysis of rainfall in the headstreams of the Zambezi River Basin in Zambia, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 33: 621-625.
-  Kendall MG (1975) Rank Correlation Methods, Griffin, London.
-  Liu Q, Yang Z and Cui B (2008) Spatial and temporal variability of annual precipitation during 1961–2006 in Yellow River Basin, China, Journal of Hydrology, 361: 330-338.
-  Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica 13: 245-259.
-  Mooley DA and Parthasarathy B (1984) Fluctuations of All-India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871-1978, Climatic Change, 6: 287-301.
-  Partal T and Kahya E (2006) Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data, Hydrological Processes, 20: 2011-2026.
-  Sharma KP, Moore III B and Vörösmarty CJ (2000) Sensitivity of the Himalayan hydrology to land-use and climatic changes, Climate Change, 47: 117-139.
-  Singh P, Kumar V, Thomas T and Arora M (2008) Changes in rainfall and relative humidity in river basins in northwest and central India, Hydrological Processes, 22: 2982-2992.
-  Sinha Ray KC and Srivastava AK (1999) Is there any change in extreme events like droughts and heavy rainfall? INTROPMET-97, IIT New Delhi, 2-5 December, 1999.
-  Tabari H and Marofi S (2010) Changes of pan evaporation in the West of Iran, Water Resources Management, doi: 10.1007/s11269-010-9689-6.
-  Tabari H and Talaee PH (2011) Temporal variability of precipitation over Iran: 1966–2005, Journal of Hydrology, 396: 313-320.
-  Tabari H, Marofi S and Ahmadi M (2010a) Long-term variations of water quality parameters in the Maroon River, Iran, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, doi: 10.1007/s10661-010-1633-y.
-  Tabari H, Marofi S, Hosseinzadeh Talaee P and Mohammadi K (2010b) Trend analysis of reference evapotranspiration in the western half of Iran, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.09.009.
-  Thapliyal V and Kulshrestha SM (1991) Climate changes and trends over India, Mausam, 42: 333-338.
-  Von Storch H (1995) Misuses of Statistical Analysis in Climate Research, In: Von Storch H and Navarra A (eds.), Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Techniques. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 11-26.
-  Von Storch H and Navarra A (1995) Analysis of Climate Variability - Applications of Statistical Techniques, Springer-Verlag: New York.
-  Yu YS, Zou S and Whittemore D (1993) Non-parametric trend analysis of water quality data of rivers in Kansas, Journal of Hydrology, 150: 61-80.
-  Yue S and Pilon P (2004) A comparison of the power of the t test, Mann-Kendall and bootstrap tests for trend detection, Hydrological Sciences Journal–des Sciences Hydrologiques, 49(1): 21-37.
-  Yue S and Wang C (2004) The Mann-Kendall Test Modified by Effective Sample Size to Detect Trend in Serially Correlated Hydrological Series, Water Resources Management, 18: 201-218.
-  Yue S, Pilon P and Phinney B (2003) Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation, Hydrological Science Journal, 48: 51-63.
-  Zhang Q, Xu CY, Zhang Z, Chen YD and Liu CL (2008) Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation over China, 1951-2005, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, doi: 10.1007/s00704-007-0375-4.
-  Zolina O, Simmer C, Kapala A, Bachner S, Gulev S and Maechel H (2008) Seasonally dependent changes of precipitation extremes over Germany since 1950 from a very dense observational network, Journal of Geophysical Research, 32: D113.
Publication order reference