Trend analysis of rainfall in Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh, India
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attention recently, especially in connection with climate change. The changing pattern of rainfall deserves urgent and systematic attention for planning, development, utilisation and management of water resources. The daily data on variable were converted to monthly and then computed to seasonal and annual series. Annual rainfall (mm/yr) was calculated as the sum of monthly values. The missing values in the data were computed by using average method. The records of rainfall were subjected to trend analysis by using both non-parametric (Mann-Kendall test) and parametric (linear regression analysis) procedures. For better understanding of the observed trends, data were computed into standardised precipitation indices (SPI). These standardised data series were plotted against time and the linear trends observed were represented graphically. Trend analysis results of rainfall show that out of 15 annual trends 6 (40%) are increasing and 9 (60%) are decreasing in nature where 1 (6.6%) is statistically significant (increasing) and 2 (13.3%) are statistically significant (decreasing) at 95% confidence level. Similarly, the changes were investigated for the four seasons: winter (December-March), pre-monsoon (April-June), monsoon (July-September) and post-monsoon (October-November). The analysis of rainfall, annual as well as seasonal, of different gauge stations in Satluj River Basin showed a large variability in the trends and magnitudes from 1984 to 2010. The rainfall shows great temporal and spatial variations, unequal seasonal distribution with frequent departures from normal. Majority of gauge stations have experienced decreasing trends, both on seasonal and annual scales. Some were statistically significant at 95% confidence level. The sensitivity of rainfall variations provides important insight regarding the responses and vulnerability of different areas to climate change. It will further strengthen the formulation of future strategy for management of water resources.
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