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2021 | 153 | 2 | 55-64
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A Susceptible-Infected-Removed Epidemiological Model for COVID-19 Spreading in Indonesia

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COVID-19 is a disease emerged from China in the late 2019 and still spreading to this date. Scientists worldwide are trying to give their contributions in many aspects, from searching for the vaccine to studying several policies in many aspects to deal with this disease. One of the important researches in COVID-19 is to study and predict the dynamic of the spreading by using epidemiological model. This research has been taken in many countries independently since the behavior of COVID-19 spreading might differ from one another. Each country has their own characteristics-e.g., the population density, geographic condition, health facilities and infrastructure, weather condition-which caused the different patterns of COVID-19 spreading. Therefore, each country probably has their own unique parameters which describe their own dynamicity of COVID-19 spreading even though the epidemiological models used in different countries are the same. Thus, in this paper, we estimate the parameters involved in our SIR epidemiological model for cases in Indonesia by using Least Square Method in Python. We use the daily cases released from Indonesian COVID-19 Response Acceleration Task Force. Several assumptions are made in this model, including the assumption that there is no vaccination to be released yet. The result shows that the COVID-19 will still exists in Indonesia for over 1.9 years from the first case emerged (until mid January 2022).
Physical description
  • Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Jl. Raya Bandung-Sumedang KM. 21, Jatinangor, Sumedang, West Java 45363, Indonesia
  • Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Jl. Raya Bandung-Sumedang KM. 21, Jatinangor, Sumedang, West Java 45363, Indonesia
  • Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Jl. Raya Bandung-Sumedang KM. 21, Jatinangor, Sumedang, West Java 45363, Indonesia
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