Preferences help
enabled [disable] Abstract
Number of results
2008 | 57 | 3-4 | 251-260
Article title

Ekstrema klimatyczne: długoterminowe zmiany i ich konsekwencje

Title variants
Climatic extremes: long-term changes and their impacts
Languages of publication
Material damages caused by weather-related extreme events have dramatically increased worldwide in the last few decades. Explanations of these events can be sought via changes in physical, terrestrial, climate and socio-economic systems. Some types of weather events have become increasingly extreme and strengthening of this tendency is projected for the future. Increase in intense precipitation resulting from world warming has been already observed, with all possible consequences of flooding. Human encroaching into the harm's way and increase in the damage potential in floodplains are often the dominating factors in the rising flood damages. Projections for the future, based on regional climate models, indicate increased risks of flood in many areas. Yet, risk of snowmelt and ice-jam floods has decreased for the most part of Europe. Increase in very dry land areas has been already noted. Further increase in dry land areas, and intensity, frequency, and severity of droughts is projected, due to ubiquitous higher temperatures and reduced, annual or seasonal, precipitation in some regions. Heat waves become increasingly frequent in summer affecting ageing European society. Impacts of extreme weather events are discussed, including the environmental track.
Physical description
  • Zakład Badań Środowiska Rolniczego i Leśnego PAN, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Polska
  • Instytut Biologii Środowiska, Wydział Biologii UAM, Umultowska 89, 61-614 Poznań, Polska
  • Dai A., Trenberth K. E., Qian T., 2004. A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J. Hydrometeorol. 5, 1117-1130.
  • Dale V. H., Lugo A. E., Macmahon J. A., Pickett S. T. A., 1998. Ecosystem management in the context of large, infrequent disturbances. Ecosystems 1, 546-557.
  • Graniczny M., Mizerski W., 2007. Katastrofy przyrodnicze. Wydawnictwo naukowe PWN, Warszawa.
  • Holmgren M., Stapp P., Dickman C. R., Gracia C., Grahams S., Hice C., Jaksic F., Kelt D. A., Letnic M., Lima M., López B. C., Meserve P. L., Milstead W. B., Polis G. A., Previtali M. A., Richter M., Sabaté S., Squeo F. A., 2006. Extreme climatic events shape arid and semiarid ecosystems. Front. Ecol. Environ. 4, 87-95.
  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007. Summary for Policymakers. [W:] Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon S., Qin D., Manning M., Chen Z., Marquis M., Averyt K. B., Tignor M., Miller H. L. (red.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York, NY.
  • Jiguet F., Julliard R., Thomas C. D., Dehorter O., Newson S. E., Couvet D., 2006. Thermal range predicts bird population resilience to extreme high temperatures. Ecology Lett. 9, 1321-1330.
  • Katz R. W., Brush G. S., Parlange M. B., 2005. Statistics of extremes, modeling ecological disturbances. Ecology 86, 1124-1134.
  • Kundzewicz Z. W., Józefczyk D., 2008. Temperature-related climate extremes in the Potsdam observation record. Geografia (Praga), w druku.
  • Kundzewicz Z. W., Graczyk D., Maurer T., Pińskwar I., Radziejewski M., Svensson C., Szwed M., 2005. Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow. Hydrol. Sci. J. 50, 797-810.
  • Kundzewicz Z. W., Radziejewski M., Pińskwar I., 2006. Precipitation extremes in the changing climate of Europe. Clim. Res. 31, 51-58.
  • Kundzewicz Z. W., Gerstengarbe F.-w., Österle H., Werner P. C., Fricke W., 2008. Recent anomalies of mean temperature of 12 consecutive months - Germany, Europe, Northern Hemisphere. Theor. Appl. Climatol. DOI 10.1007/s00704-008-0013-9.
  • Kyselý J., Kříž B., (2008). Decreased impacts of the 2003 heat waves on mortality in the Czech Republic: an improved response? Int. J. Biometeorol. (w druku); DOI 10.1007/s00484-008-0166-3.
  • Menzel A., 2003. Plant phenological anomalies in Germany and their relation to air temperature and NAO. Clim. Change 57, 243-263.
  • Mills E., 2005. Insurance in a climate of change. Science 309, 1040-1044.
  • Milly P. C. D., Wetherald R. T., Dunne K. A., Delworth T. L., 2002. Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate. Nature 415, 514-517.
  • New M., Hulme M., Jones P. D., 1999. Representing twentieth century space-time climate variability, part I: development of a 1961-90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J. Climate 12, 829-856.
  • Palmer T. N., Räisänen J., 2002, Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate. Nature 415 512-514.
  • Parmesan C., Root T. L., Willig M. R., 2000. Impacts of extreme weather and climate on terrestrial biota. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 81, 443-450.
  • Rosenzweig C., Karoly D., Vicarelli M., Neofotis P., Wu Q., Casassa G., Menzel A., Root T. L., Estrella N., Seguin B., Tryjanowski P., Liu C., Rawlins S., Imeson A., 2008. Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Nature 453, 353-358.
  • Sæther B.-e., Lande R., Engen S., Weimerskirch H., Lillegaard M., Altwegg R., Becker P. H., Bregnballe T., Brommer J. E., Mccleery R., Mërilä J., Nyholm E., Rendell W., Robertson R. R., Tryjanowski P., Visser M. E., 2005. Generation time and temporal scaling of bird population dynamics. Nature 436, 99-102.
  • Schär C., Vidale P. L., Luthi D., Frei C., Haberli C., Liniger M. A., Appenzeller C., 2004. The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427, 332-336
  • Scheffer M., Carpenther S., Foley J. A., Folke C., Walker B., 2001. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413, 591-596.
  • Trenberth K. E., Jones P. D., Ambenje P., Bojariu R., Easterling D., Klein Tank A., Parker D., Rahimzadeh F., Renwick J. A., Rusticucci M., Soden B., Zhai P., 2007. Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. [W:] Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon S., Qin D., Manning M., Chen Z., Marquis M., Averyt K. B., Tignor M., Miller H. L. (red.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA.
  • Tryjanowski P., Jerzak L., Radkiewicz J., 2005. Effect of water level and livestock on the productivity and numbers of breeding White Storks. Waterbirds 28, 378-382.
  • Tryjanowski P., Sparks T. H., Profus P., 2008. Severe flooding causes a crash in production of white stork (Ciconia ciconia) chicks across Central and Eastern Europe. Basic Appl. Ecol. (w druku).
  • Weatherhead P. J., 1986. How unusual are unusual events? Am. Nat. 128, 150-154.
Document Type
Publication order reference
YADDA identifier
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.