World Financial 2014-2016 Market Bubbles: Oil Negative - US Dollar Positive

• Authors: M. Wątorek , S. Drożdż , P. Oświęcimka
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

Based on the log-periodic power law methodology, with the universal preferred scaling factor λ ≈2, the negative bubble on the oil market in 2014-2016 has been detected. Over the same period a positive bubble on the so-called commodity currencies expressed in terms of the US dollar appears to take place with the oscillation pattern which largely is mirror reflected relative to oil price oscillation pattern. It documents recent strong anticorrelation between the dynamics of the oil price and of the USD. A related forecast made at the time of FENS 2015 conference (beginning of November) turned out to be quite satisfactory. These findings provide also further indication that such a log-periodically accelerating down-trend signals termination of the corresponding decreases.

Keywords

EN

64.60.Ht; 89.65.Gh; 05.45.Df

Discipline

• 05.45.Df: Fractals(see also 47.53.+n Fractals in fluid dynamics; 61.43.Hv Fractals; macroscopic aggregates in structure of solids)
• 64.60.Ht: Dynamic critical phenomena(for quantum critical phenomena in superconductivity, see 74.40.Kb)
• 89.65.Gh: Economics; econophysics, financial markets, business and management(for economic issues regarding production and use of renewable energy, see 88.05.Lg)

• Journal: Acta Physica Polonica A
• Year: 2016
• Volume: 129
• Issue: 5
• Pages: 932-936

Dates

published

2016-05

Contributors

author

M. Wątorek

• Complex Systems Theory Department, Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, PL-31342 Kraków, Poland

author

S. Drożdż

• Complex Systems Theory Department, Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, PL-31342 Kraków, Poland
• Faculty of Physics, Mathematics and Computer Science, Cracow University of Technology, PL-31155 Kraków, Poland

author

P. Oświęcimka

• Complex Systems Theory Department, Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, PL-31342 Kraków, Poland

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Identifiers

DOI

10.12693/APhysPolA.129.932