Criticality Characteristics of Current Oil Price Dynamics

• Authors: S. Drożdż , J. Kwapień , P. Oświęcimka
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

Methodology that recently leads us to predict to an amazing accuracy the date (July 11, 2008) of reverse of the oil price up trend is briefly summarized and some further aspects of the related oil price dynamics elaborated. This methodology is based on the concept of discrete scale invariance whose finance-prediction-oriented variant involves such elements as log-periodic self-similarity, the universal preferred scaling factor λ≈2, and allows a phenomenon of the "super-bubble". From this perspective the present (as of August 22, 2008) violent - but still log-periodically decelerating - decrease of the oil prices is associated with the decay of such a "super-bubble" that has started developing about one year ago on top of the longer-term oil price increasing phase (normal bubble) whose ultimate termination is evaluated to occur in around mid 2010.

Keywords

EN

05.45.Pq; 52.35.Mw; 47.20.Ky

Discipline

• 47.20.Ky: Nonlinearity, bifurcation, and symmetry breaking
• 52.35.Mw: Nonlinear phenomena: waves, wave propagation, and other interactions (including parametric effects, mode coupling, ponderomotive effects, etc.)
• 05.45.Pq: Numerical simulations of chaotic systems

• Publisher: Institute of Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences
• Journal: Acta Physica Polonica A
• Year: 2008
• Volume: 114
• Issue: 4
• Pages: 699-702

Dates

published

2008-10

received

2008-08-25

Contributors

author

S. Drożdż

• Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Radzikowskiego 152, PL-31-342 Kraków, Poland
• Institute of Physics, University of Rzeszów, PL-35-310 Rzeszów, Poland

author

J. Kwapień

• Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Radzikowskiego 152, PL-31-342 Kraków, Poland

author

P. Oświęcimka

• Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Radzikowskiego 152, PL-31-342 Kraków, Poland

References

• 1. S. Drożdż, F. Grűmmer, F. Ruf, J. Speth, in: Practical Fruits of Econophysics: Proceedings of the Third (2004) Nikkei Econophysics Symposium, Ed. H. Takayasu, Springer, Tokyo 2006, p. 93;available also as arXiv:physics/0503006
• 2. S. Drożdż, F. Ruf, J. Speth, M. Wójcik, Eur. Phys. J. B 10, 589 (1999)
• 3. D. Sornette, Phys. Rep. 297, 239 (1998)
• 4. D. Sornette,textit Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems, Princeton University Press, Princeton 2003
• 5. S. Drożdż, F. Grűmmer, F. Ruf, J. Speth, Physica A 324, 174 (2003)
• 6. S. Drożdż, J. Kwapień, P. Oświęcimka, J. Speth, Acta Phys. Pol. A 114, 539 (2008)
• 7. S. Drożdż, J. Kwapień, P. Oświęcimka, J. Speth, arXiv:0802.4043v2
• 8. http://wojciechbialek.blox.pl/html/1310721, 262146, 20.html?8
• 9. M. Bartolozzi, S. Drożdż, D.B. Leinweber, J. Speth, A.W. Thomas, Int. J. Mod. Phys. C 16, 1347 (2005)

Identifiers

DOI

10.12693/APhysPolA.114.699