Full-text resources of PSJD and other databases are now available in the new Library of Science.
Visit https://bibliotekanauki.pl

PL EN


Preferences help
enabled [disable] Abstract
Number of results

Journal

2008 | 3 | 4 | 430-437

Article title

Diastolic blood pressure cut-off predicts major cerebrovascular events after minor ischaemic stroke: a post-hoc modelling study

Content

Title variants

Languages of publication

EN

Abstracts

EN
Only few follow-up studies have studied in detail the role of most important risk factors, but no reports were found on critical values (cut-offs) for such factors in prospectively predicting cerebrovascular events (CVE) in patients with minor ischaemic stroke (MIS). Estimates of predictive importance of such cut-offs may better inform and contribute to optimize treatment. This was a post-hoc modelling study with unique data from Bulgaria on 54 consecutive patients with MIS, aged ł 40, followed for 12 months for nonfatal or fatal CV events. A set of routine clinical demographic and known risk factors (SBP, DBP, HDL cholesterol, etc.) were explored using univariate statistics and multivariate regression models to identify the most important independent predictors of secondary CVE. An artificial neural network (ANN) model, irrespective of usual statistical constraints, also confirmed the specific role and importance of identified predictors. A receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and stratified survival analyses were used to define the best cut-off of most important predictors and validate the final model. During follow-up period of 11.1±2.4 months, 8 secondary CV events (14.8%) were observed only in males with MIS at the 5.8±2.7 months mark. No difference in age of patients with CV event (61.1±12.6 years) vs. those without (62.1±9.6 years) was found (p>0.05). The one-year risk for CVE was.15% (95%CI 7.1, 27.7%). The two most important risk factors in patients with versus without CV events were acute MIS onset (62.5 vs. 13.0%) and mean DBP at day 30 post-MIS (101.3±9.9 vs. 92.3±10.8 mmHg), with a relative importance by ANN of 20.92 versus 15.9 points, respectively. At multivariate logistic analysis only MIS onset and DBP were independently associated with the risk for secondary CVE (79.6% model accuracy, p
model=0.0015). An increase of DBP with 1 mmHg was associated with 8% higher risk of CVE [adjusted OR=1.08 (95%Cl 1.004, 1.158)]. With this method, a novel cut-off predictive DBP value of 95 mmHg (ROCAUC=0.79, 95%Cl 0.60, 0.99, p=0.009) for CV events in patients with MIS has been found. In conclusions the new DBP cut-off (sensitivity >87%, specificity >69%) clearly discriminated between absence and presence of secondary CVE as also confirmed by stratified survival analysis (7 vs. 1 events, plog-rank =0.0103). This cut-off may be applied to better precisely evaluate and define, as earlier as possible, MIS patients at increased risk of secondary CV events.

Publisher

Journal

Year

Volume

3

Issue

4

Pages

430-437

Physical description

Dates

published
1 - 12 - 2008
online
22 - 10 - 2008

Contributors

  • Department of Neurology, Medical University, 4002, Plovdiv, Bulgaria
  • Department of Neurology, Medical University, 4002, Plovdiv, Bulgaria
  • Information Services Section, Medical University Hospital ’st. George’, 4002, Plovdiv, Bulgaria

References

  • [1] De Reuck J., De Groote L., Van Maele G., Delayed transient worsening of neurological deficits after ischaemic stroke, Cerebrovasc. Dis., 2006, 22, 27–32 http://dx.doi.org/10.1159/000092334[Crossref]
  • [2] Executive Summary of the Third Report of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults (Adult Treatment Panel III), JAMA, 2001, 285, 2486–97
  • [3] Grundy S.M., Cleeman J.I., Merz C.N., Brewer H.B.Jr., Clark L.T., Hunninghake D.B., et al., Implications of recent clinical trials for the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines, Circulation 2004, 110, 227–239 http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/01.CIR.0000133317.49796.0E[Crossref]
  • [4] Ross G.W., Petrovitch H., White L.R., Masaki K.H., Li C.Y., Curb J.D., et al., Characterization of risk factors for vascular dementia: the Honolulu-Asia Aging Study, Neurology, 1999, 53, 337–343 [Crossref][PubMed]
  • [5] Tatemichi T.K., Desmond D.W., Paik M., Figueroa M., Gropen T.I., Stern Y., et al., Clinical determinants of dementia related to stroke, Ann. Neurol., 1993, 33, 568–575 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ana.410330603[Crossref]
  • [6] Albers G.W., Choice of endpoints in antiplatelet trials: which outcomes are most relevant to stroke patients? Neurology, 2000, 54, 1022–1028 [Crossref][PubMed]
  • [7] Atanassova P.A., Chalakova N.T., Dimitrov B.D., Major vascular events after transient ischaemic attack and minor ischaemic stroke: post-hoc modelling of incidence dynamics. Cerebrovasc Dis, 2008, 25, 225–233 http://dx.doi.org/10.1159/000113860[WoS][Crossref]
  • [8] Atanasova P., Vukov M., Probability for arising of a repeated vascular incident after the primary brain infarction, with a complete clinical repair. Social Medicine 1998, 1, 19–20
  • [9] Atanassova P., Voukov M., Tchalakova N., Prediction models for probable subsequent cerebral events in patients with reversible ischaemic neurological deficit, Cerebrovasc. Dis., 2002, 2, 10–15
  • [10] Atanassova P., Clinical and Electrophysiological Study of Patients with Minor Stroke, D.M. Thesis, MU-Plovdiv, Bulgaria, 1998
  • [11] Atanassova P.A., Angelova E., Tzvetanov P., Semerdjieva M., Dimitrov B.D., Modelling of increased homocysteine in ischaemic stroke, Arq. Neuropsiquiatr., 2007, 65, 24–31
  • [12] Bamford J., Sandercock P., Dennis M., Burn J., Warlow C., A prospective study of acute cerebrovascular disease in the community: The Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project 1981–1986. Incidence, case fatality rates and overall outcome at one year of cerebral infarction, primary intracerebral and subarachnoidal haemorrhage, J. Neurol. Neurosurg. Psychiatry, 1990, 53, 16–22
  • [13] Dimitrov B.D., Assessment of the dynamics in the spread of some malignant neoplasms in Bulgaria: nonlinear prognostic models, D.M. Thesis, MU-Plovdiv, Bulgaria, 2006
  • [14] Sarle W.S. (ed), Neural Network FAQ, part 1 of 7. Introduction, periodic posting to the Usenet newsgroup comp.ai.neural-nets URL: ftp://ftp.sas.com/pub/neural/FAQ.html, 1997
  • [15] Velcheva I., Tzoneva-Pencheva T., Yancheva S., Hadjiev D., Risk factors in cerebrovascular disease in Bulgaria. In: Cerebral stroke. Ways for prophylactics in Bulgaria. Working Meeting 2/94, Sofia, 1994, 45–64.
  • [16] Lechner H., Hadjiev D., Epidemiology of cerebrovascular risk factors in South-East Europe. In: Book of Abstracts. 11th Thessaloniki Conference, Thessaloniki, Greece, 25–28 September 1996
  • [17] Calandre L., Bermejo F., Balseiro J., Long-term outcome of TIAs, RINDs and infarctions with minimum residium. A prospective study in Madrid, Acta Neurol. Scand., 1990, 82, 104–108 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0447.1990.tb05299.x[Crossref]
  • [18] Wiebers D.O., Whisnant J.P., O’Fallon W.M., Reversible ischemic neurologic deficit (RIND) in a community: Rochester, Minnesota, 1955–1974, Neurology, 1982, 32, 459–465
  • [19] Bamford J., Sandercock P., Jones L., Warlow C.P., The natural history of lacunar infarction: The Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project, Stroke, 1987, 18, 545–551 [Crossref][PubMed]
  • [20] Hier D.B., Foulkes M.A., Swiontoniowski M., Sacco R.L., Gorelick P.B., Mohr J.P., Stroke recurrence within 2 years after ischemic infarction, Stroke, 1991, 22, 155–161 [Crossref][PubMed]
  • [21] Boiten J., Lodder J., Prognosis for survival, handicap and recurrence of stroke in lacunar and superficial infarction, Cerebrovasc. Dis., 1993, 3, 221–226 http://dx.doi.org/10.1159/000108704[Crossref]
  • [22] Miyao A., Teramoto J., Takahashi A., Leikoaraiosis in relation to prognosis for patients with lacunar infarction, Stroke 1992, 23, 1434–1438 [PubMed][Crossref]
  • [23] PROGRESS Collaborative Group. Randomised trial of a perindopril-based blood-pressure-lowering regimen among 6105 individuals with previous stroke or transient ischaemic attack, Lancet, 2001, 358, 1033–1041 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(01)06178-5[Crossref]
  • [24] Diener H.C., Cunha L., Forbes C., Sivenius J., Smets P., Lowenthal A., European Stroke Prevention Study 2. Dipyridamole and acetylsalicylic acid in the secondary prevention of stroke, J. Neurol. Sci., 1996, 143, 1–13 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0022-510X(96)00308-5

Document Type

Publication order reference

Identifiers

YADDA identifier

bwmeta1.element.-psjd-doi-10_2478_s11536-008-0064-4
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.